Obamacare Hikes for 2018 May Top 80 Percent in Some States

by Jack Fowler

Your premiums are going to go up in 2018. A lot. Thanks, Obamacare. The national-average increase is a smidge over 27 percent, but depending on the state you live in, the hike could skyrocket to as much as 81 percent.

Freedom Partners has created a state-by-state 2018 “Premium Increase Tracker” that will let you find out just how bad the hit will be in your neck of the woods. Keep the Kleenex handy.

Which Taxes? A Clarification

by Jibran Khan

Commentator Sally Kohn seems confused. She attacks the bipartisan consensus (here’s the Democratic Ways and Means Committee dissenting from the GOP tax bill but supporting corporate tax reform) that the US’s corporate taxes are too high by citing a chart of taxes in general.

However, when you actually look at corporate taxes (via The Economist), the US has the highest rate in the developed world.

As I’ve said before, bad arguments don’t contribute to good policy debate. It was ridiculous when Donald Trump took the US’s high corporate tax rate to make a baseless aggregate claim. It is equally ridiculous for Sally Kohn to take the US’s low aggregate rates to make a specific claim about corporate taxes.

The chart she uses would have looked the same if the US had passed sweeping tax cuts for the ultra-rich with hikes for the middle class to balance it out. Would that be acceptable? I don’t think so either.



Trump Adds to His Supreme Court List

by Ramesh Ponnuru

The new potential nominees: recently confirmed appeals-court judges Amy Barrett and Kevin Newsom; D.C. Circuit appeals judge Brett Kavanaugh; Oklahoma supreme-court justice Patrick Wyrick; and Georgia supreme-court justice Britt Grant. So a mix of federal and state judges. Kavanaugh is the best-known of the bunch, and also a former Kennedy clerk. It is sometimes thought that Kennedy is more likely to retire if he thinks he will be replaced by someone of whom he thinks highly. But Kavanaugh is also, at 52, the oldest of the additions.

The ‘Weinstein Effect’ Doesn’t Trump the Constitution

by David French

Earlier this week, the New York Times published a piece arguing that the so-called “Weinstein effect” should impact the debate over sexual assault and due process on campus. How? In part by stopping efforts to bolster legal protections for accused students.

About six years ago, colleges began offering better support and justice for victims, pushed in part by a grass-roots movement among students themselves. But in September, pundits across the political spectrum approved when the Education Department rolled back some Obama-era rules that had broadened protections for college sexual assault victims, ostensibly because they robbed accused students of their right to due process in campus courts. Obama’s rules were already pro forma at some colleges before his 2011 federal guidance, so I believe the backlash isn’t truly about government policy, but discomfort about the change in how students approach the problem of sexual assault today.

This is very, very wrong. The “backlash” is triggered in large part because court after court (including judges across the ideological spectrum) has concluded that government tribunals (and at private colleges, government-mandated tribunals) have violated the fundamental due process and other legal rights of accused students. No amount of political awareness trumps the Constitution, and due process still applies to state efforts to deprive any person of “life, liberty, or property.”

These concepts are not difficult. When the government initiates legal proceedings that deprive a student of a liberty interest or property interest, there are certain due-process safeguards that automatically attach. They include, among other things, the right to fair notice of the charges, the right to a hearing in front of an impartial tribunal, the right to confront and cross-examine an accuser, and the right to see the relevant evidence. Colleges routinely violate those rights.

At the same time, when the government is not involved — such as when voters are deciding whether to elect a senate candidate, or when the viewers decide which movies to watch — due process does not apply. In fact, in most claims of sexual misconduct by politicians, due process is entirely irrelevant. There’s no judicial proceeding at all. Instead, the public’s duty is to consider the available evidence as fairly as possible, without partisan bias.

Going back to colleges, it’s in times of fear when due process is most important. Connecting the awesome power of the state to a wave of public fear almost always leads to bad results. Now is not the time to back away from our most foundational civil liberties.

The Disgraceful Private-Jet Tax Break in the Senate Republicans’ Tax Plan Was Introduced by a Democrat

by Jibran Khan

A provision in the Senate tax bill grants a tax break to private-jet owners. It has been rightly mocked throughout the media and Twittersphere . . . but lost in the indignation is the rightful target.

While the Republicans deserve criticism for including this bizarre handout, the measure was actually introduced by the Democratic senator Sherrod Brown from Ohio.

Voters Want Congress to Address Tax Reform and Obamacare Separately

by Alexandra DeSanctis

A recent survey found that 64 percent of likely 2018 voters believe Republicans should deal with tax reform and the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate as two separate issues, rather than combining them into one legislative effort, as the Senate Finance Committee decided this week to do.

According to the poll, conducted by Remington Research Group, 50 percent of voters support tax reform as a general matter, 29 percent oppose it, and 21 percent remain unsure on the issue. Meanwhile, 50 percent of voters oppose Obamacare repeal compared to 40 percent who support it.

Forty-two percent of respondents said they’d be less likely to support tax reform if it included the abolishment of Obamacare’s individual mandate.

College Campuses Need More Debate

by George Leef

One of the more irritating leftist phrases we hear is that colleges and all other institutions should “model diversity.” That is, they should all have every shade of the rainbow in colors or people to show that we’re all one big happy family. (Bill Clinton’s “I want a cabinet that looks like America” was an early instance of this.)

Instead of “modeling diversity” I suggest that colleges model rationality. They should make sure to display different viewpoints and — more importantly — how to employ reason when points of view clash. Our campuses used to do that rather effectively, but not so much these days. (But one school where debate still thrives is Hillsdale, which recently hosted a debate over free trade between Don Boudreaux and Ian Fletcher.)

In today’s Martin Center article, Professor George La Noue makes the case for reviving debate. He and a team of grad students recently published a paper on the decline of debate. He writes,

Our findings were discouraging. Except for wealthy institutions possessing high-status research centers or law schools, sponsoring debates or forums about public policy with different perspectives is not a priority in higher education. Many political issues debated everywhere else in American society are not debated at all, or only rarely, in campus public events. Almost all undergraduates can vote, but few are exposed to diverse viewpoints about the major policies which should inform their franchise.

The problem is that administrators mostly prefer to avoid possible altercations likely to result when Social Justice Warrior types try to shout down speakers they don’t like (even if there is another speaker they do) and the faculty has done little to stand up for the civil exchange of ideas. That being the case, La Noue argues that trustees and state officials need to prod schools to do more.

He concludes,

A public inventory of campus debates and forums, as our research has done, should be the first step in holding higher education accountable for exposing students and future citizens to diverse ideas. That should eventually improve the kind of civil and tolerant political culture so important in a democracy.

It would be great to see our campuses buzzing with debates over all sorts of contentious topics: the minimum wage, the drug war, socialism, Obamacare, gun control, taxation, etc. Students would learn that people who disagree with them are not monsters and that arguments must be met with counter-arguments, not blind rage. Thanks, Professor La Noue, for calling attention to this serious problem.

Senate Finance Committee Approves GOP Tax Bill

by Jibran Khan

The Senate Finance Committee voted last night on a 14–12 party-line vote to approve the Senate version of the GOP tax bill.

It will come to the Senate floor after the Thanksgiving recess for further debate and consideration.

It features significant differences compared to the House version of the bill, so the two will have to be reconciled.

The House version adds more to the deficit, keeps the property tax deduction, does not sunset most of its individual taxes, and does not repeal the individual mandate.

It’s Like an Instant-Replay Review for One of the Big Decisions of 1998

by Jim Geraghty

From the last Morning Jolt of the week:

It’s Like an Instant-Replay Review for One of the Big Decisions of 1998

The spectacularly convenient shift among Democrats continues, now with Kirsten Gillibrand leading the charge . . . 

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Democrat of New York, who holds Hillary Clinton’s former seat, said on Thursday that Bill Clinton should have resigned the presidency after his inappropriate relationship with an intern came to light nearly 20 years ago.

Asked directly if she believed Mr. Clinton should have stepped down at the time, Ms. Gillibrand took a long pause and said, “Yes, I think that is the appropriate response.”

But she also appeared to signal that what is currently considered a fireable offense may have been more often overlooked during the Clinton era.

(As I wrote a few weeks ago, spectacularly convenient shifts are a habit for Gillibrand.)

Still, for those of us who always felt Bill Clinton escaped serious consequence for his long history of sexually pursuing women who worked for him, this long-delayed emerging bipartisan consensus is a bit of a pleasant surprise, the political equivalent of the Missouri Tigers being officially notified that there shouldn’t have been a “fifth down” in that infamous game against Colorado in 1990. Clinton’s critics were right, and his supporters were defending the indefensible. Let’s start revising those history books, folks.

(I know everybody remembers the Clinton presidency for the dot-com boom, welfare reform, and the Macarena, but there’s a need for a serious reconsideration of the Clinton record — most spectacularly in the rise of al-Qaeda, the aid deal with North Korea, and the botching of probably the best opportunity for entitlement reform . . . )

Plus, the thermonuclear reaction from the remaining Clinton enclave is going to be delightful to watch. Philippe Reines, the former adviser to Hillary Clinton, is beside himself: “Over 20 yrs you took the Clintons’ endorsements, money, and seat. Hypocrite. Interesting strategy for 2020 primaries. Best of luck.”

Actually, yes, this is an interesting strategy for the 2020 primaries. Reines seems to think that deviating from the Democratic party’s orthodoxy over an impeachment battle from what will then be 22 years ago will be a make-or-break issue in what is likely to be a crowded primary. By 2020, Bill Clinton’s impeachment will be further back in the past than the Vietnam War was in the 1992 presidential race.

Will the Democratic primary electorate of 2020 be so convinced that a statement like Gillibrand’s is such blasphemy? We can feel the ground shifting beneath our feet. A lot of behavior that was once unsavory but did not generate serious consequence is now fodder for stories and part of a “trend.” (More on that below.) No doubt within the inner circle of the Clintons, women like Juanita Broaddrick, Kathleen Willey, and Paula Jones are all considered to be terrible liars, and Clinton’s interaction with Monica Lewinsky was an entirely personal indiscretion that warranted no serious public scrutiny or consequence. Never mind the country as a whole, I’m not sure most Democrats believe that anymore. Vox contributor Matt Yglesias is getting a lot of skepticism for his recent essay, but I’m willing to take him at his word that he’s really changed his mind:

“My boss took advantage of me,” Lewinsky writes in the same article, a piece in which she correctly argues that the ensuring debate ended up entirely slighting highly relevant issues including “the balance of power and gender inequality in politics and media.”

Had Clinton resigned in disgrace under pressure from his own party, that would have sent a strong, and useful, chilling signal to powerful men throughout the country.

Instead, the ultimate disposition of the case — impunity for the man who did something wrong, embarrassment and disgrace for the woman who didn’t — only served to confirm women’s worst fears about coming forward.

Yes, there is no consequence for Democrats suddenly coming to their senses now and concluding that Clinton deserved to pay a steeper price. That’s why the Clintons should be so terrified. How many Democrats, in the back of their minds, heard a little voice of conscience during the Clinton scandals and knew that they were defending a creep?

(An early indicator: The 2008 Ryan Reynolds romantic comedy-drama Definitely, Maybe features the actor as a political consultant who briefly worked for Bill Clinton, and events of the Clinton presidency are playing in all of the flashback scenes. After Clinton admits the affair with Monica Lewinsky, the Reynolds character grumbles to his friends, “Maybe he should be impeached. Why not? I put my faith in him. We all did. I thought he was gonna be different than the other jokers, but this guy, he can’t even define the word ‘is.’ What happens if they give him one of the hard words, like ‘truth’?” The movie moves on to the romantic plot, but that’s a pretty scathing assessment to hear spoken aloud by the lovable male lead of a romantic comedy, and Hollywood was always one of the places the Clintons were loved the most.)

Maybe a good chunk of Democrats defended Bill Clinton because they felt like they had to, not because they wanted to. And maybe there’s been some resentment over that brewing for the past two decades.

Friday Links

by debbywitt

The Suez Canal opened on November 17, 1869.

These crabs can grow up to 3 feet long — and hunt birds, a biologist’s video proves.

Watch 245 People Jump Off a Bridge.

The Gettysburg Address was seven score and fourteen years ago tomorrow (November 18) — here’s some history and an excellent brief video with contemporaneous photos and illustrations. Related: Newspaper prints a retraction for 1863 article calling Gettysburg address “silly remarks”; retraction written in the style of Gettysburg Address.

The pigeon’s rump cure for childhood seizures.

My Surprising Career as an Amazon.com “Fake” Reviewer.

ICYMI, Wednesday’s links are here, and include Field Marshall Erwin Rommel’s birthday, are cats, technically, a liquid?, an X-ray murder trial, and how female turkeys choose their mates (and avoid the rejects).

We Conclude Our Webathon this Sunday

by Jack Fowler

We remain short of our $200,000 goal. Yes, we are more than halfway there. But there is a big gap. Help fill it. These people have, and have sent encouraging words along with their generosity:

  • Michael doles out $100 and puts it plain and simple: “You guys are the best and always have been (to me at least).” Back at you pal!

  • Don makes with a fifty and speaks to how his day begins and ends with us: “I am not really set for the day, until I can read up on the latest at National Review. And I have to check in late before bedtime, to read up on what I couldn’t that morning! It is a voice of sanity and logic and reflection, that steadies me in the current whirlwind of national controversies and scandals. Thanks guys, for what you do!” This means a lot.

  • Corey, from Badger country, drops $50 in the plate and gets all Velveeta on us: “From the heart of cheese-head country I extend a hearty thank you for the continued education I receive on a daily basis. The wit with which the articles are delivered is an extra bonus! I especially enjoy reading my favorite Libertarian, Kevin Williamson – keep up the great work and we’ll keep the US well-supplied with our cheese!” I’m tempted to do a cut joke here. Anyway, thanks much.

  • Another 50 bucks finds its way to NR, courtesy of Randy. We’re loving why: “Made in WFB’s memory. As a long time sailor, whenever I get down I pull out one of his many sailing books and soothe my soul. Been reading a lot lately! Keep up the good fight, you guys are needed more than ever.” So good of you Randy.

  • And then a wow-inducing $1,000 shows up from Greg. He shoots straight: “I don’t always agree, but your is by far the most consistently high quality political writing anywhere. Keep it up.” With friends like you, we have, we can, we do, we will.

We hope these sentiments inspire you to do likewise. Please help NR by making a generous donation here. Paypal donations should be made here if you prefer. Or send a check, payable to “National Review,” to our new address: 19 West 44th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY 10036. To all who have supported us during the Fall 2017 Webathon, on this 32nd Day of #30DaysHathBucktember, many thanks.

Huck Finn & More

by John J. Miller

Catch up on the Great Books podcast: Weekly, 30-minute conversations with scholars and experts on the books they love. Recent episodes: The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, Beowulf, and The City of God. Subscribe for free!

We Have Enough Checks on the President’s Power to Order a Nuclear Strike

by David French

Earlier this week, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a highly unusual hearing. For the first time in decades it considered whether it’s necessary to alter or restrict the president’s power to order a nuclear strike. Democratic senator Christopher Murphy claimed the hearing was necessary because President Trump is “unstable” and “volatile.” Republicans were more measured, but concerns about potential confrontation with North Korea are more than enough reason to at least carefully think through current processes.

As it is, the president possesses the exclusive legal authority to order a nuclear attack. No general can decide to use our most deadly weapons, even if the forces under his command face complete destruction and only a nuclear strike can save his troops. A general facing a crumbling front and an imminent military disaster has only conventional weapons at his command.

At the same time, the president doesn’t have to consult with Congress before using our nation’s ultimate weapons. It’s one reason why the American commander-in-chief is rightly described as the most powerful man in the world.

But it’s not unchecked power. Every American president is subjected to important constitutional and military restraints. The most important constitutional safeguard against the kind of man who’d launch a truly rogue strike — initiate genocidal war on impulse — is the 25th Amendment. A man so unhinged is incapable of serving as president, and the Constitution provides for his emergency removal if the vice president and a “majority of the principal officers of the executive departments” determine that the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”

Moreover, a proper reading of the Constitution also limits the president’s authority to initiate any kind of war, including nuclear war. The Constitution reserves the power to declare war to Congress. The commander-in-chief, by contrast, is responsible for waging war.

When our constitutional system is functioning, the only time the president should be able to act without Congress is when he’s responding immediately to an actual or imminent attack on the United States, on Americans abroad, or to an attack on American allies when we’re under a Senate-ratified defense obligation. Even then, he should turn to Congress as soon as possible to ratify his defensive response and authorize offensive military action.

As we know, however, a number of American presidents have disagreed with this constitutional formulation and have taken it upon themselves to wage war without congressional approval. And they’ve done so without facing any constitutional consequence. In other words, one of our constitutional safeguards has already failed — at least in the face of lower-stakes conflicts.

Thus, we have to consider a nightmare scenario. What if a president snaps — acting before his cabinet can remove him — and orders an indefensible, rogue nuclear strike? The answer is simple. The military wouldn’t comply. It’s officers are bound by law to refuse lawless commands, and the modern American military has profound cultural and moral restraints against the kind of world-changing mass murder that would result from a rogue strike. It won’t happen.

In fact, it’s doubtful that it would happen even in the face of more defensible temptations to launch a first strike. Our nation has suffered conventional military disasters (for example, deep in North Korea during the first year of the Korean War) without resorting to nuclear weapons, and it’s hard to imagine a single general recommending a nuclear strike in the absence of actual or imminent opposition use of weapons of mass destruction. Our military is built to fight and win wars through the use of conventional weapons . . . and conventional weapons alone.

Of course one can always imagine a different, dystopian future where our current safeguards would be inadequate. But as much as I’ve critiqued Trump on other grounds, I have no fear that he’ll attempt a rogue strike. In fact, his actual military policies since assuming office have been quite moderate, and his military operations have not just been successful, they’ve been conducted squarely in compliance with the laws of armed conflict.

Moreover, there are good reasons for putting the nuclear authority in the hands of the commander-in-chief. In many likely nuclear launch scenarios, decisions will have to be made with extreme speed. In case of a defensive strike, the decision may have to be made in the few minutes while opposing nuclear weapons are in the air — or in the moments before an imminent opposing nuclear launch. In such situations, decision-by-committee could lead to catastrophic delays and cost millions of lives.

Finally, let’s not forget that the system has worked, and in worked through decades of hair-trigger nuclear alerts and times of far worse international tension. This American system is not broken. There’s no harm in evaluating the current system, and the committee was right to hold a hearing. But after further consideration, nothing should change.

New NR Podcast: The Jamie Weinstein Show

by Charles C. W. Cooke

I’m thrilled to announce that National Review will henceforth be hosting one of our favorite podcasts, The Jamie Weinstein Show. Over the last year or so, Jamie has sat down with figures as diverse in background and outlook as Roger Stone, David Frum, Tomi Lahren, Jamie Kirchick, Dana Perino, Richard Spencer, Bill Mitchell, Bill Kristol, and Bill Ayers. On each occasion, he’s managed to cut the 20-seconds-of-shouting-and-then-back-to-the-ads approach that is so common on cable news, and to really get into his chosen topics. The results have been illuminating and entertaining. We’re thrilled to be the new home for this excellent show.

For the inaugural episode at NR, Jamie went to Texas to talk to none other than Mark Cuban. You can listen to that show here, as well as subscribe to the feed on iTunesGoogle Play, and Stitcher (TuneIn will be added by the end of the week). Jamie has also taken the time to write up what he thinks were the most interesting parts of the interview, and I’d recommend reading that too. Enjoy!

On Great Men, and Al Franken

by Kevin D. Williamson

“Great men are seldom good men.” It’s a cliché, but some clichés become clichés because they are true.

Mohandas K. Gandhi was kind of a creep, sleeping nude with attractive young women, usually family members, purportedly as a test of his chastity. The Reverend Martin Luther King Jr. was pretty rotten when it came to women. Thomas Jefferson seems to have amused himself by raping a 14-year-old slave. John Kennedy, Augustine, Mohammed — none of them were exactly exemplary in their personal lives.

The situation is not very different among men who are merely famous. The catalogue of rock-’n’-roll pedophilia, from Jerry Lee Lewis to Iggy Pop, is as long as KISS’s discography, and as predictable. (I consider some of that in the current issue of National Review.) Writers? Don’t even get started on that bunch. Hollywood? Anybody really think Harvey Weinstein is the only Harvey Weinstein out there?

In the case of great men, we have to consider their careers whole. Gandhi had some very weird personal habits and a lot of very stupid ideas about politics and economics, but he was right about his One Big Thing. The Reverend Martin Luther King Jr., too. We are lucky that Jefferson wasn’t as influential as he might have been among the Founding Fathers, given that he harbored some truly insane political ideas. It’s a difficult thing to do, which is why good historians and good biographers are so valuable.

Happily, in the case of Senator Al Franken, we don’t really have to do very much of that. He’s a putz. He was a putz before that leering picture of him groping a sleeping woman came out. Some of our Democratic friends have been reconsidering their apologizing and excuse-making for Bill Clinton. (More joy in Heaven and all that — but the timing sure is convenient.) If it is the case, as Matthew Yglesias argues, that Bill Clinton should have resigned in disgrace over his gross but consensual exploitation of a young White House intern, what should Franken do?

What says the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota? Are we to take them seriously, or not?

Bad Arguments Don’t Help Us Debate Bad Policy

by Jibran Khan

I’m a skeptic of the Republicans’ tax plan. I think that it’s unwise to blow up the deficit outside of a recession in the hopes that sudden economic growth will rebalance the budget.

Dishonest arguments against the plan, however, do skeptics no credit. Brian Faler in Politico and Matt Yglesias at Vox both released policy explainers this afternoon with a bold claim in their headlines, declaring that the Senate plan raises taxes on the middle class.

As Yglesias notes in the text of his article (but contrary to what the headline suggests), this uses the estimate for 2027, after the individual tax cuts expire. This simply ignores the entirety of those cuts, which will be in effect for years, as well as the possibility that Congress would renew them in the future, closer to their sunset.

There does seem to be an actual tax increase on lower brackets, but it’s not what Yglesias was pointing to. Specifically, the $10,000-to-$20,000 bracket sees a lower refund, and the $20,000-to-$30,000 bracket sees an apparent rate increase. Nicole Kaeding at the Tax Foundation suggests that this is because fewer would claim health-care-premium tax credits with individual-mandate repeal.

This tax plan (and all proposed legislation) should be thoroughly vetted. Misleading critiques to pull in clicks, though, simply encourage people to write off all criticism.

Immigration and ‘Elites’

by Ramesh Ponnuru

The language of “the elites vs. the people” lends itself all too easily to abuse, but there is a division of opinion on immigration policy that is hard to describe in any other way. CEOs do seem to favor higher and less-policed immigration than the people who work for them; the heads of religious organizations do seem to favor it more than the folks in the pews; and so on. Bryan Caplan, himself a proponent of open borders, says as much:

If public support for immigration is so high, why has political opposition become so vocal? Because public support for immigration, though relatively high [compared to 1966-2002], remains absolutely low. And that’s all it takes for anti-immigration demagoguery to work. The real puzzle isn’t, “Why did Trump take a strong anti-immigration stand in 2016?” but “Why doesn’t every presidential candidate take a strong anti-immigration stand in every election?” And the obvious solution to this puzzle is elite-on-elite pressure: elites are more cosmopolitan than the masses – and shame fellow elites who dissent. Trump won by being the sort of elite who treats elite shame as a badge of honor. [emphasis in original]

I think that’s only part of the story. It’s also true that if you were a leading Republican politician in 2007, say, you most likely genuinely fell on the elite side of the opinion divide — and so did most of the people who talked to you about the issue. But it is an important part of it.

National Review’s Joan Didion

by John J. Miller

Part of the lore of National Review is that Joan Didion once wrote for us, way back in the late 1950s and early 1960s, before she became a famous writer. Netflix recently debuted The Center Will Not Hold, a biographical documentary of Didion, who is 82. It doesn’t mention the National Review connection, but if you want to learn more about it, read this fine piece by Nic Rowan in Acculturated.

Go Ahead, Take People Off the Income-Tax Rolls

by Ramesh Ponnuru

Response To...

A Few Thoughts on the ...

I had hoped that conservative enthusiasm for keeping as many people as possible paying income taxes would peter out after the 2012 election, when the sentiment led Mitt Romney to make his politically damaging remarks about the allegedly irresponsible “47 percent” of people who don’t pay them. But it continues as a piece of conservative folk wisdom, and Veronique de Rugy and George Will have both recently voiced it on NRO. People who don’t pay income taxes, Will writes, have “a vanishingly small incentive to restrain the growth of a government that they are not paying for through its largest revenue source.”

In years of debating this issue, I have never yet found a proponent of this theory — the theory that taking people off the tax rolls makes them more likely to support big government — who has provided a scrap of evidence for it. I’m not looking for peer-reviewed social science. Just show me:

1) that increases in public support for government activism have coincided with increases in the percentage of the population without income-tax liability, or that decreases in both have coincided with each other; or

2) that the groups of people who have mostly left the income-tax rolls over the last two decades — parents leaving because of the child tax credit and voters in the Silent Generation and early Baby Boomers leaving because of retirement — have become more pro-government activism; or

3) that voters make a sharp distinction between payroll and income taxes and consider themselves to be getting off free if they pay only the former.

I don’t believe we have good reason to believe any of these things. For example, the percentage of people paying income taxes was rising before and during the Great Society years. And our federal government was much smaller during the century-plus when nobody at all paid an income tax than it has been since then. (The Founders were intensely concerned about limiting federal power but don’t seem to have considered a make-everyone-pay-income-taxes strategy for achieving that end.)

If the Will/de Rugy theory were right, it would place proponents of smaller government at a dead end. Their anti-tax instincts would be at war with themselves. They would have to raise middle-class taxes today in order to deliver a payoff of lowering middle-class taxes in a hypothetical future. Luckily, there is no reason to think the theory holds water.

Senate Democrats Won’t Say Whether They’d Vote To Expel Roy Moore

by Alexandra DeSanctis

In light of the sexual-assault allegations against Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore — along with reports that he habitually attempted to date women who were in their teens when he was in his thirties — National Review Online contacted the offices of every Democratic senator (including the two Independents who caucus with the Democrats: Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine) to ask if they would vote to expel Moore from the Senate should he win election in December.

Only a handful of offices bothered to reply, and all but one — that of Oregon senator Ron Wyden — did not directly address whether or not Moore should be expelled by sitting senators upon his election.

“Roy Moore does not belong in the Senate, period,” Wyden told NRO via email. “He has been accused of awful, unacceptable conduct. I cannot imagine the people of Alabama will elect an accused sexual predator, but if they do, he should be expelled.”

Less unequivocal were statements from the offices of the few senators who so much as replied to emails and phone calls requesting comment.

“Senator Cortez Masto is disgusted by the reports out of Alabama on Roy Moore’s alleged history of sexual assault,” read an email statement from Ryan King, deputy communications director for Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada. “He should do the right thing and step aside.” Since the allegations about Moore surfaced, Cortez Masto has sent fundraising emails in her name for the campaign of Doug Jones, Moore’s Democratic opponent in Alabama.

The office of Senator Sherrod Brown said the Ohio Democrat agrees with Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell that Moore should step aside, and he does not believe that Moore should serve in the Senate.

Michigan senator Gary Peters’s office replied similarly, saying Peters believes Alabama voters have a clear choice, and if they do not want a senator mired in scandal, they should not vote for Roy Moore.

Sue Walitsky, communications director for Senator Ben Cardin of Maryland, told NRO only: “Senator Cardin supports Doug Jones.”

It is worth asking why Senate Democrats would be so hesitant to say whether or not the allegations against Moore are egregious enough to merit a vote to expel him from the Senate. Perhaps some Democrats would prefer to have Moore in the Senate, in spite of his possible misdeeds, because his presence as a GOP leader makes it easier for the Left to tarnish all Republicans with his unfitness for office.

Editor’s Note: This piece has been updated to include a statement from the office of Michigan senator Gary Peters. This article previously stated that his office had declined to comment on the record.